Known knowns after polling day

The EU vote may be too close to call, but three things will be certain on Friday.

First, the Government’s working majority of 16 will be dwarfed by defeated Tory malcontents (and the administration will still be heavily outweighed in the Lords, too). Second, George Osborne will be at serious risk of political reprisal – either through punishment or sacrifice. And third, the deluge of delayed legislation and the need for a ‘referendum dividend’ means the Government will be under pressure to announce a flurry of new Bills, even if it does not have the political capital to deliver them.

In short, whatever happens on Thursday, this extraordinary period of high drama in British politics will continue for many months to come. 

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